Another week of college football means another week of information to put in our back pockets. As the calendar flips to October we’ll be seeing plenty of conference action as well. So let’s use that to our advantage as we look at the week 5 CFB slate.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Caleb Williams Pass Yards

Boy do we have a hefty number here for the former Heisman trophy winner. The USC quarterback has failed to clear 353.5 passing yards in any of his starts this season. The Trojans have won each of these games by at least two touchdowns, and they find themselves favored by more than 3 touchdowns on Saturday.

Believe it or not, no quarterback has been able to clear this number against Colorado this season. That’d be because opponents can basically do whatever they want on the ground. Deion Sanders’ team is giving up 5.8 yards per carry, which ranks 121st in the nation.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Ainias Smith Receiving Yards

The Aggies saw star quarterback Conner Weigman go down with an ankle injury last week against Auburn. They now turn to journeyman Max Johnson. The key takeaway here is the loss of mobility at QB for Texas A&M as Johnson is more of a pure pocket passer.

With wide receiver Noah Thomas unavailable the last two weeks, Smith has seen his targets see a major bump. That should continue this week with Thomas still unavailable and a quarterback less willing to tuck it and run. Not to mention, moving the football on the ground will be difficult against Arkansas’ top-25 run defense.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Devin Leary Pass Yards

Kentucky gets its first true test of the season on Saturday with the Florida Gators coming to town. Devin Leary has come in after Will Levis left for the NFL and hasn’t quite looked like the guy he was at North Carolina State.

Leary has already thrown 5 interceptions in 4 games and is completing just 58.6% of his passes. Yet he’s still been able to go over his 216.5 passing yards line in 3 of 4 games this season.

The Wildcats will need Leary’s arm in this one. Florida defense has been elite against the run, ranking 33rd in opponent EPA per rush. Kentucky is happy to lean on the pass anyways, their 55% pass rate is the 33rd highest in FBS.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: RJ Harvey Rush Yards

UCF is back at the Bounce House for their first home conference game in the BIG12. They’ve got a great chance to get their first win of conference play too with Baylor in town.

The Knights will be without John Rhys-Plumlee for yet another week. Missing his rushing presence puts the onus on the backfield, led by RJ Harvey.

UCF is running the ball on 57.4% of plays and they should have plenty of success here. Baylor is giving up 209 rushing yards per game, at a clip of 6.1 yards per carry. Both bottom-10 ranks in all of college football.

Harvey is splitting time with Johnny Richardson, but he’s had the advantage in opportunities this season, averaging 13 carries per game.

NCAAF Player Props Trend: Malik Nabers Receiving Yards

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the absolute tear Malik Nabers has been on the last two weeks. 369 yards, 21 receptions and 4 touchdowns. In conference play no less!

But Nabers hasn’t been nearly as good against Ole Miss in his two career games. Rebels’ safety John Saunders Jr. made it clear this week that Nabers will get all of their attention and then some on Saturday night.

Ole Miss has been quite good against the pass this season too, ranking 37th in opponent EPA per pass. 

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Thank you Tyler MacKillop for the article, he can be found on X at @TylerMacKillop

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