The week 4 college football slate is one of the best we’ve seen! With 6 ranked-on-ranked matchups, it’s the most ever in September. We’ll try to touch on at least a few of them. Let’s dive into some trends for the CFB slate.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Cade Klubnik Rush Yards

Clemson plays host to Florida State on Saturday afternoon, with major ACC Championship implications. The Tigers are already 0-1 in conference play with a loss to Duke in week 1, so another may eliminate them from the race before the end of Septemeber.

Klubnik will be the deciding factor here, and he’s been under a ton of pressure so far this season with an average of just 2.43 seconds to throw. Florida State has done a good job generating pressure against opposing QB’s too, they rank 25th in pressure rate on defense at 33.6%. 

But what FSU has failed to do is contain mobile quarterbacks. Both Jayden Daniels of LSU and Thomas Castellanos of Boston College led their teams in rushing against the Seminoles. Daniels had 90 rushing yards and Castellanos had 119!

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jase McClellan Rush Yards

The Tide don’t look like the Tide, and it starts with their rushing attack. Some of that is on their backs, averaging just 4.3 yards per carry. But the offensive line looks brutal, there’s no space for these backs to create. Alabama ranks 72nd in stuff rate despite just one game against a power-5 opponent.

It’s rare you see a potential 2nd string running back have an over/under on rushing yards posted by the books. But McClellan has ceded opportunities to Roydell Williams, who’s received less carries (30-35) but has actually been more productive (178-158).

Not to mention, the only time McClellan was able to clear this number this season was without Jalen Milroe at quarterback. His mobility will be utilized by the Tide, which could take some opportunities away from Alabama’s running backs.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jo’quavious Marks Rush Yards

This isn’t the same Mississippi State team that it was under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs offense has taken a complete 180. After leading the country in passing rate in 2022 at 68.5%, they now rank 84th, throwing the ball on just 46.4% of plays.

Marks is now the driving force of this offense, in a win over Arizona in week 2 he got the ball 24 times. That was a career high for him, breaking his previous career high from week 1 of THIS VERY SAME YEAR.

They’ve got South Carolina this week, who’s been terrible against the run so far in 2023. The Gamecocks rank 106th in opponent EPA/rush through three games. If Mississippi State can keep this close, Marks should continue to get plenty of volume.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Conner Weigman Pass Yards

The Aggies finally seem to have their answer at QB with Conner Weigman. And they’ve been letting the young man cook, throwing the ball on nearly 60% of plays.

They’re on the road against an Auburn team that is sorely banged up. They lost their top cornerback Keionte Scott for the season, and have been missing veteran CB Nehemiah Pritchett, along with Donovan Kaufman.

The Tigers like to blitz, doing so on more than 45% of plays this season. Weigman is a poised passer who’s excellent at taking care of the ball. He’s thrown 8 TD’s and is completing 69.2% of his passes against the blitz this season.

NCAAF Player Props Today: Bo Nix Passing Yards

The Buffs head down to Eugene for their first PAC-12 conference game of the season. Oregon’s Bo Nix is certainly a Heisman contender, but 316.5 passing yards is a hefty number, he hasn’t cleared it much as a Duck.

I dug a little deeper on the Props.Cash app to filter games that Bo Nix won. The reason being that Oregon is a 21-point favorite over Colorado. Nix only cleared this number in 3/14 games as a Duck.

If Oregon is in fact leading in this game, they shouldn’t have much of a problem running the ball on Colorado’s defense. The Buffs are allowing 5.4 yards per carry, a dismal 114th in the country.

Want to find trends like these on your own? New users can get 25% off their first month of a props.cash monthly plan with the code BLOG25 at checkout (when signing up on the website only).

Special thanks to Tyler MacKillop for this article. He can be found on X at @TylerMacKillop

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