Conference Championship weekend has arrived! Just because there are less games, doesn’t necessarily mean we have less to work with. In fact, with less games, the sportsbooks get more player props out to us in each game.

We’ll cover all of the Power-5 championship games, including the BIG12, SEC, ACC and BIG10. As well as my favorite prop from the Group of 5 championship matchups.

Let’s get into some player props for college football Conference Championship week!

NCAAF Player Prop: Rashod Owens Receiving Yards

Star running back Ollie Gordon is the straw that stirs the drink for this Oklahoma State offense but in this particular matchup I don’t see that being the case. Texas has the most talented front-7 in the country and that’s resulted in them ranking 7th in run defense allowing just 3.9 yards per carry.

Owens’ is the man on the outside for the Cowboys, running 87.6% of his routes out wide. Texas has given up its fair share of big plays to these receivers, ranking 97th in opponent completion percentage on passes of 20+ air yards.

Owens has had a reception of 20+ yards in 5 straight games and that’s a big reason why he’s cleared his 47.5 receiving yards number in 4 straight games and in 6 of his last 8.

NCAAF Player Props: Jermaine Burton Receiving Yards

The listed receiving yards number at 58.5 for Burton has treated him really well as of late, having gone over in 6 of his last 7 games. But you’ve got to dive a little deeper in order to find the full story.

Putting up 60+ receiving yards can be really tough to do when you’re averaging just 3.3 receptions per game. But the reason why is pretty simple, Burton is a walking explosive play.

Burton has had a reception of 40+ yards in 7 of his last 10 games. But can he do that against this Georgia secondary?

Georgia is allowing just a 24.6% completion percentage on passes of 20+ air yards, the 12th best rate in the country. As well as the 2nd lowest passer rating.

63% of Burton’s receiving yards this season have come on receptions of 20+ air yards. If these plays aren’t available to him, he is not getting the volume to be able to eclipse his listed number.

NCAAF Player Props: Isaac Guerendo Rush Yards

If you’ve been watching the Cardinals play this season you might not be as familiar with Guerendo as you are with Jawhar Jordan. But Jordan has been battling through injury and Guerendo has looked far better.

You can see it in the recent rush attempts for Guerendo as he’s gotten 15 and 13 carries in the last two weeks. He’s been the more efficient back as well, averaging 5.9 yards per tote.

The forecast is calling for rain in Charlotte which could have an impact on Louisville’s run/pass split. But with how good of a pass rush the Seminoles have they’re best suited to run the football. FSU is also giving up 5.0 yards per carry this season, ranking 80th in the nation.

With a tight point spread, Guerendo should get enough volume here to be able to get over his rushing total.

NCAAF Player Prop: Blake Corum Anytime TD

Let’s talk about the touchdown machine that is Blake Corum. Who has scored in every single game this season. He’s actually scored 2+ touchdowns in 67% of games in 2023.

It’s Corum’s ball in the red zone. When the Wolverines are inside the opponent 5-yard line he’s gotten 73% of the rushing attempts. On 27 inside-the-5 carries he has 20 touchdowns.

Iowa’s offense is the worst in the entire Power-5 conferences, but has somehow found itself in the BIG10 title game. I’d expect to see the Wolverines have plenty of short fields to work with as a result of this horrible Hawkeyes offense.

Corum’s anytime TD odds aren’t enticing but you can find his 2+ TD odds as high as +200 and even a cheeky bet for Corum to score in the first half is priced at -130.

NCAAF Player Props: DeQuan Finn Pass Yards

Finally, we veer away from the Power-5 and head to the Mid-American conference! DeQuan Finn and the Toledo Rockets are looking to defend last year’s MAC crown.

Finn is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference but they don’t use his arm a whole lot. The Rockets are running the ball on 60.3% of plays, the 13th most in the country.

Not only is Toledo not throwing it much but the Miami defense is elite, ranking as a top-20 team in pass defense and giving up just 193.2 pass yards per game.

Despite facing a really good Miami OH defense Toledo is still more than a touchdown favorite. That’s because the Redhawks really struggle on offense and also play extremely slow. They score 24.1 points per game (79th) and rank 130th in seconds per play.

I don’t see Toledo needing Finn to throw it around here in order to win and in fact with how slow these teams play there won’t be a lot of opportunity to. I think Finn will stay under this number as he has in 7 of his last 10 games. Which includes their game against Miami OH in which Finn tallied just 160 passing yards.

Thank you, Tyler MacKillop, for this article. He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop

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