By Prop The Mic

It’s week two of the NBA playoffs.  The Thunder, Nuggets, and Timberwolves have all advanced, while the remaining teams battle to advance to Conference Semifinals.  Scoring is down by over 12 points per game compared to last year’s playoffs, so it’s even more critical for us to have the right research tools to find value.  We fired up props.cash and found some trends for tonight’s slate that are looking solid:

NBA Player Prop Trend: Terance Mann 9.5 Points

Mann has cleared 9.5 points in two of the four games vs Dallas this series.  In games 1 and 4, he scored 13 points and 11 points.  Compare this to games 2 and 3 where Mann scored 5 and 2 points.  The difference…Kawhi Leonard was out games 1 and 4.  Mann’s minutes without Kawhi in this series have increased from an average of 21.8 mins with Kawhi to an average of 36.9 mins without Kawhi.  Mann has cleared 9.5 points in 80% of games this season when playing 30+ mins and 100% of games when playing 35+ mins. This is a solid spot tonight with Kawhi out and against a Mavericks team that has given up the 7th most points to opposing Wings over the last two months.

NBA Player Props Today: Luka Doncic 33.5 Points

If you saw our post on X from last night you know we think tonight is a Kyrie game.  But here’s another way to play that game script.  After game 4, Luka was quoted as saying “I just gotta help him [Kyrie] more. I feel like I’m letting him down. I gotta be there. I gotta help him more. He’s given everything he has and he’s been amazing for us the whole series.”  Kyrie has been incredibly efficient this series, shooting 50.8% FG compared to Luka at 38.5%.  We feel this will translate to more playmaking for Luka and less shots.  Luka has failed to clear 33.5 points in any game this series and has only cleared in 30% of games this season on the road when playing with Kyrie. The Mavs also only averaged 96.5 points in the first two games of the series in LA, so we’re expecting another low scoring game with Luka falling a few points short of his line.

NBA Player Props Today: Caleb Martin 12.5 Points

Caleb Martin appears to be the one role player on Miami that Coach Spoelstra is committed to consistently playing big minutes.  In his last three games, Martin has averaged 37 minutes, scoring 21, 5, and 18 points and averaging 10 FGA.  He has cleared 12.5 points in 77% of games this season when attempting 10+ shots.  Martin also loves playing BOS, clearing 12.5 points in 10 of his last 11 games against the Celtics with 29+ minutes.  With Jaime Jaquez out tonight, this Miami team will be even thinner.  Martin should get 38+ minutes and 10+ FGA and clear again vs Boston.

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