Insight
WNBA Player Prop Insights: Sunday Slate
September 01, 2024
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The most action-packed lineup of the week is about to unfold, and there’s no better way to kick off Sunday’s games than by highlighting an All-Star: Aliyah Boston.
WNBA Player Prop Trend: Aliyah Boston Assists
According to the latest data from props.cash, Boston has averaged only 3 assists per game for most of this season. However, since the season restarted after the Olympic break, her numbers have improved significantly, with her now averaging 5 assists per game. This uptick in her assist numbers I believe suggests that Boston has not only been focusing more on playmaking and distributing the ball recently but the fact they are gaining more and more chemistry.
With this game featuring two of the fastest teams in the league, I believe the high-paced style will play to Boston’s strengths. Her increased willingness to distribute the ball should work well against a bigger opposing squad, allowing her to exploit some favorable matchups on the offensive side of the ball and create easier scoring opportunities for her teammates. Given her team’s size disadvantage, I expect Aliyah to be a key facilitator, helping to break down the defense and finding the mismatch throughout the game.
WNBA Player Prop Trend: Jackie Young Rebounds
After highlighting one All-Star, let’s turn our attention to another who will be eager to help her team recover after resting the other night: Jackie Young.
Jackie is entering this game fully energized, especially after sitting out the last Aces game for rest. In Paris, she played an average of over 16 minutes per game while helping to lead the U.S. team back to the podium, so the break should have her feeling refreshed.
Although props.cash shows that Jackie has averaged less than 5 rebounds per game this season, this matchup presents a great opportunity for her to shine on the boards. The Mercury are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, and Jackie has taken advantage of that in previous matchups, averaging over 8 rebounds per game in the three games against the Mercury this season.
Even though the Las Vegas Aces have just clinched their playoff spot, which could lead to a slight decrease in overall team intensity, I don’t expect any letup from Jackie. As an All-WNBA player coming in on five days of rest, she is likely to bring her usual high level of effort and take full advantage of this favorable matchup.
WNBA Player Prop Trend: Tina Charles Points + Rebounds
We go from one All-Star who’s struggled to start the second half of the season to a Hall of Famer coming off of a triple double, Tina Charles.
I’m really excited about Charles’ potential in today’s game. In my opinion, there hasn’t been a team or player performing better since the Olympic break, and the data from props.cash supports this. Tina has been averaging a combined 33 points and rebounds per game since the break and has consistently surpassed this mark in every game during that period.
The Sparks have struggled to defend the center position all season, which has contributed to Charles’ success against them in previous matchups, where she recorded at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in each game. Although Azura is back in the Sparks’ lineup, bolstering one of the biggest frontcourts in the league, Charles’ confidence and production are undeniable.
As a Hall of Famer, she brings a level of intensity and skill that can’t be overlooked. Given that she missed the last game, which the Dream lost, I expect Charles to give it her all in this crucial matchup. She’ll be doing everything her team needs to secure a win in this must-win game for the playoffs.
WNBA Player Prop Trend: Angel Reese Points
Last but certainly not least, let’s delve into some potential value in Minnesota with the emerging star and rookie, Angel Reese.
I really love the value in this spot today because I believe the line is slightly inflated due to some recency bias. According to the graph from props.cash, she has averaged fewer than 12 points per game since the break resumed, and the only time she surpassed this mark was against Phoenix, one of the league’s weakest defensive frontcourts.
Now, Angel faces the best defensive team in the league, who are coming off an unexpected and surprising loss. The Lynx are excellent at defending the frontcourt, making this a challenging matchup for her. Given the circumstances, I think this is the perfect opportunity to fade the Rookie of the Year candidate.
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