An 11-game Tuesday night slate, and we’ve got four props for you following our perfect first article. Check the bottom of this page for the last article’s recap!

NHL Player Prop Insight: Matvei Michkov Point

Michkov has begun to catch heat over the past four games after registering just two points in his previous six games. Over his previous four games, he’s tallied three goals and eight points. He’s been doing so in a bottom-six role, averaging just 14 minutes of ice time per game. That was until last outing against the Utah Hockey Club, where Michkov was promoted to the back up, playing on the second line with Owen Tippett and Morgan Frost.

Michkov has found most of his success on the road this season, finding the scoresheet in eight of 11 games this season, good for 12 points. Tonight, the rookie is set to face the Columbus Blue Jackets for the first time in his career. However, he’s catching them at a good time, as they allow the most goals against over their last 10 games, averaging 3.9 per game. Elvis Merzlikins is slated to get the nod. He had an admirable game last match against the Winnipeg Jets, boasting a 1.0 goals against average (GAA) and a .960 save percentage (S%). However, there have been two games this season where Merzlikins has finished with an above .960 S%. In each of the two following games, he allowed six goals.

Oh yeah, let’s not forget it’s Michkov’s birthday today too.

NHL Player Prop Insight: Seth Jarvis Shots on Goal

Since returning from injury, Jarvis has been shooting consistently. In the seven games since his return, Jarvis has cleared his SOG line in five of those games, averaging 3.0 SOGs on 5.1 SA. If you look closer at the graph, you’ll notice that it just so happens that all of those games he’s cleared, have been at home, and the two games he missed, were on the road.

Over those five games, Jarvis is averaging 4.0 SOGs on 6.8 SA. But his home success stems further than just his recent five games; he is clearing at a 73% clip in Carolina, averaging 3.3 SOGs on 5.4 SA. With his recent uptick in volume (averaging 6.8 SA), if we date Jarvis back to last season in home games where he saw 6+ shot attempts, he cleared 11 of 12 games, averaging 3.9 SOGs.

Today’s matchup is against the San Jose Sharks, who are certainly a target for shots. The Sharks allow the second most shots against (32.8) on the season and the fourth most to forwards (22.5). Carolina, on the other hand, averages the second most shots on goal (32.4) per game. Jarvis doesn’t have the greatest history against the Sharks, only clearing in two of his latest six games. However, both of those games came last season, where he registered seven SOGs on 10 SA.

According to recent line changes, the Hurricanes are opting to stack their top line, placing Martin Necas on the left wing of Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. While that may be concerning, given how well Necas has been playing this season, he’s projected to play his off-wing. Usually, that would throw a player off a tad in terms of shooting, having to find new angles to get their shot off. This should lead to more passes, hopefully resulting in Jarvis being the beneficiary to fire more on net.

NHL Player Prop Insight: Jack Hughes Shots on Goal

This chart looks a bit staggering cause when Hughes hits, he smashes this line, but when he misses, he rarely even shoots. However, we find Hughes on a positive trend, and being a streaky shooter, we’ve got to ride the hot hand while we have it.

Hughes has cleared this line in four of his last six games, averaging 5.3 SOGs on 10.5 SA. He has recorded double-digit shot attempts in five of those six games. With his increased volume, looking at his 2023 graphs where Hughes recorded 10+ shot attempts, he cleared in 17 of 19 games, averaging 6.8 SOGs.

Hughes has more success at home than he does on the road at clearing this line, having hit this mark in 47% of his home games, averaging 4.0 SOGs on 7.7 SA. While on the road, he’s clearing at just a 33% clip, averaging 3.1 SOGs on 6.4 SA. And this remains true based on last season, as Hughes cleared at a 67% clip at home (averaging 4.7 SOGs on 8.6 SA) compared to 48% on the road (averaging 4.1 SOGs on 8.2 SA).

Against the Maple Leafs, Hughes has cleared this line in six of his last eight games, averaging 4.3 SOGs on 7.4 SA. Now, Toronto isn’t the ideal matchup to target centres, as they allow the third-fewest SOGs (8.9) to the position on the season; however, over their last 10 games, that number has increased, as they are now allowing the 18th-most on the season, averaging 9.9 per game.

Toronto are having troubles staying out of the penalty box, as they allow the fifth most power play opportunities per game (3.3). Hughes has the second on the Devils in shot attempts (49) on the man advantage this season.

Despite the less-than-ideal matchup, his recent uptick in shot attempts and his history against the Maple Leafs, is enough to back this play.

NHL Player Prop Insight: Brayden Point Point

This one is a little juicy, but it’s hard to ignore this much green on a chart. Feel free to use this as a parlay piece for your other favourite juiced prop on the slate.

Point has a point in eight of his last 10 games, totalling 17 points –– including back-to-back four-point games against the San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks. Point got his running mate back last game in Nikita Kucherov, where the duo put up seven points between the two of them –– Points being involved in all four of the Lightning goals.

You want to see a fully greened-out chart?

Now, isn’t that just beautiful? Point has a point in every single road game this season. In all 11 games, he’s walked away with at least one point, totalling 16 of his 29 points coming on the road this season.

Not only does he have success away from home, he performs well against the Oilers, currently riding a four-game point streak against the club, totalling seven points. Despite poor goaltending, Edmonton hasn’t been allowing too many goals as of late, allowing just 2.6 goals against over their past 10 games. However, the Lightning are the hottest scoring team in the league over that span, scoring an average of 4.6 goals per game over that same span. Over the previous three head-to-head meetings between the clubs, the over has hit in all three games, with the Lightning scoring 16 goals on their own in those games.

Last Week’s Recap:

I will be keeping track of our record moving forward.

Week 1 – 4-0 +3.37U

Oh BABY did we have an opening article for this NHL season. Matthew Boldy needed three shots and finished with nine. Noah Dobson needed three shots and got four. Conor Garland got his point off an assist early in the second period. Tomas Hertl got his revenge against his former team twice, picking up two assists on the Golden Knights’ seven goals.

That’s a perfect 4-0 sweep to start the season. Now, we’ll be back to posting each week consistently until the end of the season. Let’s keep the win streak going with these four props tonight.

Thank you, SpittinPicklets, for the article. He can be found on X @SpittinPicklets

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