By Ben Cary 

Season-long player props are quickly growing as one of the premier ways to bet on season-long outcomes in the NFL and across all of professional sports.

Historically, these have been tough markets for oddsmakers to set and for bettors to bet on. Concerns about injuries and playing time have a magnified effect on individual player props relative to that effect on more traditional season-long markets like win totals. 

As the number of season-long player props expands every year, bettors have more data available to help make better decisions with their money (companies like props.cash).

Thanks to 4for4 and Props.Cash, we have comprehensive data on the season-long player prop markets.

I will give you a rundown of three of the most popular season-long markets & also give you a few lines that catch my attention using the “CapWize Player Prop Spotlight” graphics that leverage props.cash historical charts. 

Special thanks to Nick Granered for the majority of the research to follow.

NFL Player Prop: PASSING YARDS

Out of every prop type in our data, passing yards go under more than anything else, and it makes perfect sense why.

Passing yards over/unders are almost entirely coordinated with health. 

In 2021, 11 QBs started all 17 of their team’s games. They went 4 overs and 6 unders with Mac Jones not having a line available. The other 2 who went over both started 16 games out of the 5 total with 16 starts. 

QBs who started 15 or fewer games went 0 overs and 12 unders.

In 2022, very much the same. 8 QBs started all 17 games and they went 6 overs 1 under (no number for Geno Smith). The other 3 overs had 16 (Burrow), 15 (Hurts), and 13 (Mariota) starts. 

QBs who started 15 or fewer games went 2 overs and 18 unders.

So basically, passing yards are a coin flip if you can guarantee 16+ starts and a nearly guaranteed under with 15 or less starts.

An NFL Player Prop OVER to consider: Deshaun Watson Pass Yards

Watson’s passing yards over is one that looks good to us. Firstly, he isn’t a player who people are rushing to bet his overs on. 

Secondly, the Browns will pass the ball more without the duo of Chubb/Hunt and a deep core of pass catchers including Cooper, Njoku, DPJ, Bell, and Moore. And also Grant, who was one of the fastest players in all of the NFL before injury, and rookie Cedric Tillman.

An NFL Player Prop UNDER to consider: Aaron Rodgers Pass Yards

Rodgers seems to be becoming more likable than ever with his Hard Knock’s exposure and this under seems likable to me also. The first few games will be filled with some learning curves and timing issues, which is why there is value in this under to begin with. 

Furthermore, Rodgers turns 40 in December, and entering his 19th season, he is past his prime & don’t expect to see a gunslinger approach as we have seen in years past.

NFL Player Prop: RUSHING YARDS

Rushing yards are actually the best prop type to bet overs on out of everything we dove into.

At first glance, this feels weird because players who run the ball (both RBs and mobile QBs) have a higher chance of getting hurt and missing time.

This might be one of the props that injury could be factored in slightly. But also, in 2021, you saw a handful of running backs just going over slightly. 

Running backs rarely fly over their number, and the only outlier over the last 2 seasons was Josh Jacobs in 2022. So I would shy away from any sort of alt-rushing yard overs.

At the end of the day, we are still talking about a 44% hit rate to the over and 56% to the under, which is still a decent percentage of unders hitting.

An NFL Player Prop OVER to consider: James Connor Rush Yards

This over ain’t sexy, but it makes sense. Kyler Murray is still set to play in Week 1, but I see Murray as somewhat limited as a runner as he gets back up to game speed. Conner may have a heavy workload, and even if he plays 12 games (62.5 yards needed on average per game), he could go over. 

Furthermore, If the season gets way out of hand and the “Tank for Caleb” conversations get intensified, Conner may be the guy who gets the rock consistently throughout the season.

An NFL Player Prop UNDER to consider: Justin Fields Rush Yards

I am all in on Fields & the Bears this season, but this number is inflated after last season and him going over 1000 rushing yards. When your leading receivers last season were Kmet, Mooney & St. Brown, the upside to pass is limited and Fields made things happen with his feet. 

With the addition of D.J Moore, and a full season with Chase Claypool, expect Fields to rely more on his arm and less on his legs.

NFL Player Prop: RECEIVING YARDS

Overs in this market have hit at a 40% rate over the last two seasons, and while this is not great, there is a better way to attack this market if looking to play overs.

Take a look at the 2021 receiving yard graph for wideouts.

Then in 2022, we saw even more wideouts go significantly over their number when they went over.

Betting the alt-overs seems to be the move here as this is one market where props seem to fly over when they go over, and not so much hugging the line on the graph

An NFL Player Prop OVER to consider: Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards

With the injury to Tim Patrick in camp, Jerry’s upside goes up even more. He will be the clear number 1 option for Russ, and with Sutton & Dulcich to follow. Jeudy is poised for a thousand-yard season with the new coaches and Sean Payton at the helm in Denver. 

This is one where a 1250 alt-over could be a great look as well. If Payton really can maximize what is left in Russ, Jeudy will be the biggest beneficiary of this. If there was ever a receiver due to a breakout season, it’s Jeudy. 

An NFL Player Prop UNDER to consider: Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards

This under is not a knock on Deebo, but this is a value play for me based on the offensive structure of the Niners. Brock Purdy is not an air raid passer and this is not the way the offense is designed at the core. CMC, Kittle & Aiyuk have to get their touches as well, so just a lot of mouths to feed in SF.

Deebo has missed 15 games over the last 3 seasons (5 a season on average) & also is a threat as a runner averaging 3.5 rushing attempts on average per game over the last 2 seasons. There are other ways to get Deebo involved than just the passing game. 

Conclusion

The season-long player prop market is fairly new on the scene, and it seems like books still haven’t adjusted for injuries as much as they should be. But part of me wonders if they don’t really need to because of the characteristics of bettors. 

Season-long overs are hitting at only 37.4% and blindly taking unders would have you hitting 62.6 over the last two seasons.

Bettors, for the most part, lean to betting overs naturally. Humans want to root for something to happen vs things not to happen, and it also seems like this thought process is intertwined with entertainment for the bettor and their viewing experience.

I am aware that trying to tell someone to bet more unders who wants to bet overs isn’t exactly helpful, but hopefully sharing this data will help you understand more.

To access more season-long prop data including receiving TD props/rushing TDs props & reception props, and more player prop spotlights powered by props.cash, download the free CapWize report here.

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