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Article by SpittinPicklets

The NFL season is right around the corner, and we are back with some of our best future props for this upcoming 2024-2025 season. As we ramp up towards September 5th’s opening kick-off, I’ll provide my favourite season-long props for each position group.

First off, the Quarterbacks. But honestly, after digging so heavily into this one prop, I’ll leave you with just the one for today.

And that is…

NFL Player Prop Future: Kyler Murray o450.5 Rushing Yards

Our first prop is the former number one overall pick in the 2019 draft from the University of Oklahoma, Kyler Murray, to go over his season-long rushing yards line.

The NFL has transitioned towards a much heavier focus on running quarterbacks, and Murray is definitely among the elite category when it comes to that. Guys like Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Anthony Richardson would round out the top five.

Here are the current lines on Caesars Sports Book for each player listed above:

Lamar Jackson – 700.5 Rushing Yards
Jalen Hurts – 525.5 Rushing Yards
Anthony Richardson – 525.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen – 500.5 Rush Yards
Kyler Murray – 450.5 Rushing Yards

As you can see, Murray has the lowest rushing yards line of any of these quarterbacks. But why?

Here are the rushing yards each of these quarterbacks averaged on a per-game basis last season:

Lamar Jackson – 821 rush yards in 16 games = 51.3 yards per game.
Jalen Hurts – 605 rush yards in 17 games = 35.6 yards per game.
Anthony Richardson – 136 rush yards in 4 games = 34.0 yards per game.
Josh Allen – 524 rush yards in 17 games = 30.8 yards per game.
Kyler Murray – 244 rush yards in 8 games = 30.5 yards per game.

Okay, he averaged the least rushing yards per game of the top five, so that makes sense then, right?

However, keep in mind that Kyler was returning from an ACL tear he suffered in Week 11 of the 2022 season. And the number one rule with returning ACL players in Fantasy Football is you always want to target players who are two years removed from their ACL injury.

Players who suffer this injury say that their first season back is more mentally challenging than physically. They tend to be more cautious and hesitant about a reinjury, whether they aren’t comfortable making their regular cuts or have yet to regain their top speed.

However, two years removed is the sweet spot. By this time, players should be back to full speed with full confidence in their knee mobility to return to their previous form. And that’s what we’re getting with Kyler Murray for this 2024 season.

Here are three examples of runners who suffered this injury and how they performed afterwards. To preface, these are all running backs, as these are the players most commonly affected by this injury.

Edgerrin James:
2001 – Torn ACL
2002 – 14 games, 989 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 3.6 yards per carry
2003 – 13 games, 1,259 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns, 4.1 yards per carry

Dalvin Cook:
2017 – Torn ACL
2018 – 11 games, 615 rush yards, two touchdowns, 4.6 yards per carry
2019 – 14 games, 1,135 rush yards, 13 touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry

Saquon Barkley:
2020 – Torn ACL
2021 – 13 games, 593 rush yards, two touchdowns, 3.7 yards per carry
2022 – 16 games, 1,312 rush yards, 10 touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry

This season, we’ll see Breece Hall and Javonte Williams now two years removed from their ACL injuries, as something to monitor for how well they perform this season.

Now that we’ve established the boost players get two years removed from this injury, let’s look into Kyler’s rushing stats in his career.

* = ACL injury year.

2019 – 16 games, 544 rush yards, 5.8 yards per carry, 34.0 yards per game
2020 – 16 games, 819 rush yards, 6.2 yards per carry, 51.2 yards per game
2021 – 14 games, 423 rush yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 30.2 yards per game
*2022 – 11 games, 418 rush yards, 6.2 yards per carry, 38.0 yards per game
2023 – 8 games, 244 rush yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 30.5 yards per game

Kyler has yet to cover this line since his first two years in the NFL. However, that’s also the only two years in which he played a full season.

Here is how Kyler actually finished those last three seasons.

And here is what Kyler’s pace was had he played a full 17-game season:

2021 – 513 rushing yards
2022 – 646 rushing yards
2023 – 518 rushing yards

As you can see, Kyler comfortably would have covered this line in all three seasons.

The NFL introduced a 17th game in the 2021 season. So, if we’re to average his rushing yards per game on a 17-game pace, here’s how many rushing yards he would have finished with in the 2021-2023 seasons.

And if we’re to take Kyler’s rushing attempt average of 85 per season and use his 5.5 yards per carry from last season (second lowest of his career), Kyler would finish with 467.5 rush yards. 

But keep in mind, this includes three seasons where he failed to play an entire 17-game season.

Now, let’s look at the offence from last season.

It was Drew Petzing’s first year as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, and whether it was Kyler or Josh Dobbs, he certainly liked to use his Quarterbacks in the running game.

Both quarterbacks started eight games last season. Dobbs finished with 47 rush attempts, 34 of which were designed quarterback runs. Murray finished with 44 rushing attempts, 28 of which were designed runs.

Projecting out for a full season, Petzing’s quarterback finished with 91 rush attempts, of which 62 were designed runs. Had he played a full season, this would be the third-highest of Kyler’s career.

Here are his designed runs per season under Kliff Kingsbury:|
2019 – 65 designed runs in 16 games, averaging 4.1 per game
2020 – 82 designed runs in 16 games, averaging 5.1 per game
2021 – 58 designed runs in 14 games, averaging 4.1 per game
2022 – 43 designed runs in 11 games, averaging 3.9 per game

Under Petzing last season, here are the splits between his quarterbacks:

Dobbs – 34 designed runs in 8 games, averaging 4.3 per game
Murray – 28 designed runs in 8 games, averaging 3.5 per game.

Total – 62 designed runs in 16 games, averaging 3.9 per game.

* Not included is Clayton Tune’s solo start.

While yes, that’s the lowest of Kyler’s career – in a season where he was coming off an ACL injury with not much to play for, considering the Cardinals were 1-7 – but reaches his floor of 3.9 per game.

Arizona also drafted a generational talent at wide receiver, which you may have heard of, Marvin Harrison Jr., not to mention last year’s breakout tight end, Tre McBride, who will only help draw more attention down the field, allowing Kyler to evade pressure and have so much open field to run with.

Now, we’re going to need a clean bill of health – which he hasn’t done in three straight seasons –  but with the offensive upgrades and the history of players rebounding two years removed from their ACL injuries, I expect 2024 to be one of Kyler Murray’s biggest to date and smash his 450.5 rushing yards line.

Thank you SpittinPicklets for this write up! He can be found on X @SpittinPicklets

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