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Article by SpittinPicklets

We’re back. After a lengthy write-up on Kyler Murray and his rushing yards, we’re targeting this article slightly differently. With the season fast approaching, we’ll be giving our best running back, wide receiver, and tight end all in one article today!

First, the running back…

Breece Hall o999.5 Rushing Yards

This line varies from sports book to sports book. I’ve seen it as high as 1050.5, but we found a nice line on Betway. Some books have Hall’s line at 1000.5, so shop around, but I think Hall explodes this season and would play it up to the 1050.5.

Looking at the graph, he’s not cleared in either of his first two seasons in the NFL. But that’s not really his fault. Hall suffered an ACL injury in Week 7 of his rookie season, resulting in him only rushing for 463 yards.

Last season, Hall was still recovering from his ACL injury but nearly cleared this line regardless. Hall managed to play in all 17 games for the New York Jets last season, rushing for 994 yards, six shy of our total. All of this was done in a recovery year where he wasn’t up to 100% speed or confidence in his knee.

But now, he’s two years removed from said ACL tear, and that’s when running backs pop.

Players say that it’s more mentally than physically challenging in their first year back from an ACL tear. I highlighted some examples in my latest Kyler Murray article, but if you haven’t seen that, here they are again.

These are just a few examples of running backs who tore their ACL with their stats from the following two seasons afterwards to show their improvements.

Edgerrin James:

2001 – Torn ACL
2002 – 14 games, 989 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 3.6 yards per carry
2003 – 13 games, 1,259 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns, 4.1 yards per carry

Dalvin Cook:
2017 – Torn ACL
2018 – 11 games, 615 rush yards, two touchdowns, 4.6 yards per carry
2019 – 14 games, 1,135 rush yards, 13 touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry

Saquon Barkley:

2020 – Torn ACL
2021 – 13 games, 593 rush yards, two touchdowns, 3.7 yards per carry
2022 – 16 games, 1,312 rush yards, 10 touchdowns, 4.5 yards per carry

Breece Hall falls into this category for this season.

Hall registered only 80 rush attempts in his rookie season but mustered 463 rushing yards. That’s good for an average of 5.79 yards per carry.

In Hall’s recovery 2023 season, he had 223 rush attempts, with 994 rushing yards. That’s good for an average of 4.46 yards per carry.

Throughout his career, Hall has had 303 rush attempts and 1,457 rushing yards. That’s good for 4.81 yards per carry.

If we’re to assume Hall remains at his career average of 4.81 yards per carry, he would need just 208 rushing attempts to clear this line – 15 fewer carries than last season while he recovered from injury.

His path to a workhorse running back is there. The Jets did not bring back last season’s backup running back Dalvin Cook and just have 2024 fourth-round pick Braelon Allen behind Hall.

What’s normally the biggest hindrance for a New York Jets running back? Their offensive line. But this year projects to be different.

At the end of last season, the Jets had the second-worst (31st) offensive line, according to PFF. However, after some outstanding offseason moves, the Jets enter the season with the fifth-best offensive line, according to PFF.

The Jets brought in veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, who both ranked in the top 10 of PFF’s highest-graded tackles from last season. These additions, along with former first-round pick Alija Vera-Tucker returning from injury, earn the Jets a 26-spot upgrade.

All of this, and I haven’t even brought up that Aaron Rodgers yet…

Although, I don’t think I need to to fully sell you on Breece Hall this season. The fact that Hall is two years removed from his ACL injury, with his previous track record, career averages, and the improved offensive line, should be enough.

Now, our wide receiver…

Jameson Williams o3.5 Receiving Touchdowns

Oh goody, another all red graph. But after this season, there will be a sliver of green.

All the buzz around Detroit Lions training camp has been around the improved play of Jameson Williams. Even Lions coach Dan Campbell has spoken about Williams needing to mature a bit before his breakout, and that projects to be this season.

First, let’s look at his play.

It’s been a rollercoaster first two seasons for Williams.

After tearing his ACL in his draft season, he struggled to carve out a role in his rookie year, playing in just six games, garnering one reception on his nine targets. However, he showed his explosiveness as he took that one reception 41 yards for a touchdown.

Year two was the prime year for Williams to burst onto the scene. However, that was cut short after being suspended four games for gambling. He would suit up in 12 games last season, taking his 24 receptions for 354 yards and two touchdowns.

Now, it hasn’t panned out yet, but this year is different.

With the departure of Josh Reynolds and no other receiving threat brought in, Williams is the shoo-in for the elevated WR2 role. Reynolds leaves behind 64 targets.

And don’t get me wrong, Sam LaPorta had a great season last year. But he was just the second rookie tight end in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. He’s likely due for some regression.

So, there are 64 targets and five touchdowns left behind from Reynolds. And let’s just say LaPorta does regress a little from his 120 targets last season down to 100.

Now, with Williams receiving the WR2 role, let’s just give him 50% of Reynolds’ 64 targets (32) and LaPorta’s regressed 20 targets (10) and add it to his 41 from last season. That’s 83 targets.

Williams caught 24 of his 41 targets, that’s a 59% catch rate, which isn’t great. But he had two touchdowns on those 24 receptions. That’s good for an 8.3% TD rate.

So, if he receives our projections of 83 targets, Williams should finish the season with 49 receptions and 4.1 touchdowns, clearing our over.

And that is by giving him only 50% of his elevated role in this Lions offence. Reynolds ran a route on 500 of Jared Goff’s 642 dropbacks, compared to Williams’ 250. The WR2 role was double the amount of routes Williams ran last year.

While Williams has added an arsenal to his route tree, let’s not forget he’s a deep threat with blazing speed. Of players to receive over 30 targets last season, Williams ranked fifth in average depth of target (aDoT), averaging 37.0 yards targets per target…

He’s shown flashes of excellence; now let’s watch Jameson Williams put it all together and breakout with four touchdowns in an elevated role this season.

And finally, the tight end…

Dalton Kincaid o80.5 Receptions

Now, this one isn’t on every sportsbook. You might need to search for this one, but it’s by far my favourite tight end season-long prop.

Dalton Kincaid had a very impressive rookie campaign, but nobody’s talking about it, as LaPorta’s success shadows Kincaid’s.

Kincaid finished last season with 673 receiving yards on 73 receptions in what was a very crowded receiving room in Buffalo. But this offseason, the Bills did some deep cleaning.

The Bills traded long-time number-one receiver Stefan Diggs to the Houston Texans, and WR2 Gabe Davis signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills now have 141 vacated targets with their departures.

That’s not to say the team didn’t bring anybody in. The Bills brought in Curtis Samuel in free agency and used the first pick of the second round to draft Keon Coleman.

While the majority of those vacated targets will be handed to these newbies, Kincaid has the rapport with Josh Allen. And having that little bit of familiarity in a completely revamped offence is something quarterbacks often rely on.

As a rookie, Kincaid earned 91 targets, and that’s with Diggs and David on the team.

Let’s just say Kincaid earns an extra 25 of those 141 vacated targets. That bumps him up to 116 targets. Kincaid caught 73 of those 91 targets, for an average of an 80% catch rate.

If that continues, and he sees the 116 targets, Kincaid would finish this season with 93 receptions, smashing our 80.5 reception line.

And while I understand Dawson Knox is still there, the Bills have been throwing Kincaid in the slot throughout training camp when both tight ends are on the field.

So, with all those vacated targets and a sophomore bump mixed with his rapport with Josh Allen, Kincaid could be in for a huge reception year.

Now, let’s pray for a full bill of health from our guys: Kyler Murray, Breece Hall, Jameson Williams and Dalton Kincaid so that we can sweep our four future picks!

Thank you SpittinPicklets for this article! You can find him on X @SpittingPicklets.

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