College sports are in full force for the next 7 days. With feast week ongoing in college hoops and the last few weeks of the college football regular season. I’m here to help you navigate the craziness and settle in some of the best CFB player props for week 12.

Let’s dive into some college football player prop trends.

NCAAF Player Prop: Bryson Barnes Pass Yards

If the Utes want to walk out of Tuscon with a win, they’re going to need a big game from Bryson Barnes. He gave them just that in a narrow loss to Washington last week.

The Wildcats are one of the country’s best against the run this season, ranking 15th in opponent EPA/rush. Teams are averaging just 4.1 yards per carry against them, 17th best in the nation.

Early in the season, Barnes was splitting work with Nate Johnson. But now that he’s had the starting gig to himself, he’s over this number in 3 of his last 4 games. Now in his last 5 games he’s attempted 26.2 pass attempts per game. That’s volume that should lead to clearing this number yet again.

NCAAF Player Prop: Caleb Williams Rush Yards

If you didn’t know, unlike in the NFL, in college football quarterback’s yards lost when sacked count towards their rushing total. That’s a huge factor as to why the under catches my eye, having seen Williams go under his listed 19.5 total in 6 of his last 8 games.

UCLA has the best pass rush in the country, pressuring opposing QB’s on 41.7% of their dropbacks and recording a 20.6% sack rate.

USC hasn’t been great in pass protection either, ranking 91st in sack rate allowed in 2023.

NCAAF Player Prop: Emani Bailey Rush Yards

The recent trend for Bailey at this large number of 99.5 rush yards doesn’t look great. He’s gone under in 4 of his last 6 games. But what has encouraged me to take the over is his opportunities.

The Horned Frogs are getting him the ball a ton. So I took a look at all the running backs to receive 18+ carries against Baylor this season and 67% of those RB’s went for 100+ rushing yards.

Baylor has been atrocious against the run, giving up 199.9 rushing yards per game and allowing 5.6 yards per carry.

NCAAF Player Prop: Graham Mertz Pass Yards

Graham Mertz has managed to accomplish a rare feat for a quarterback this season. That’s transferring into the SEC to a mid-tier program and having a better season than he did at his old school.

Billy Napier has a lot of trust in Mertz, especially on the road, where he’s gone over in 3 of 4 games. While attempting on average 40 pass attempts per game away from the Swamp.

Missouri’s pass defense isn’t one to be too worried about, they rank 74th in opponent EPA/pass. As 10 point underdogs in this game, expect the Gators to lean on their passing attack here.

NCAAF Player Prop: Malik Washington Receiving Yards

The run that Virginia wide receiver Malik Washington is on has been one of the most well kept secrets in the sport. But let me tell you why I think the run stops here.

A matchup with the Duke Blue Devils is nightmare fuel for opposing wide receivers. Only two players have gone over 100 receiving yards against them this season, Devontez Walker last week and Mitchell Evans of Notre Dame in week 5.

Washington’s 10 receptions of 20+ air yards ranks 18th in the nation. But Duke has only allowed a 19% completion percentage on these passes for a grand total of 8 completions.

Washington has had a reception of 40+ yards in 6 of 10 games this season, if he doesn’t get that in this game it’ll be really difficult to go for triple digits against the Blue Devlis.

Thank you Tyler MacKillop for this article. He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop

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