By Tyler Mackillop

It’s time to talk about the biggest games of the college football season, the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day!

There’s plenty of CFB player prop trends to fade or tail based on how each of Michigan/Alabama and Washington/Texas matchup.

We’ll be getting you an in-depth breakdown on each game and some player props you cannot miss!

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jermaine Burton Receiving Yards

Let’s go in chronological order, starting with Granddaddy of Them All, the Rose Bowl between Alabama and Michigan.

You may remember that remarkable stat from Michigan’s defense earlier this season. Where they hadn’t allowed an opponent inside their own 10-yard line for the first 6 weeks.

So how did their opponents score? Well the same way they’ve been doing most of the season… explosive plays. Michigan ranks 81st in opponent completion percentage on passes of 20+ air yards at 36.4%. 

This could be a major problem for the Wolverines as Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been elite with these passes, completing 53.1% of them (3rd), throwing 16 touchdowns, with 0 turnover worthy plays.

Burton is the go-to-guy for Milroe on the deep ball; he’s had a reception of 40+ yards in 7 of 11 games this season. Not only that, 38.5% of targets are of 20+ air yards and 62% of his production has come on deep passes.

If Alabama is going to put up points in the game, the Milroe-Burton connection is going to be very important in doing so.

NCAAF Player Prop: Jalen Milroe Rush Yards

We talked a bit about where the Michigan defense may struggle but that doesn’t mean I think they won’t find any success.

Jalen Milroe has had some explosive games against LSU and Auburn in recent weeks, but he’s about to see by far his toughest test of the season.

If you paid attention to the SEC Championship game you may have seen Georgia’s defense plays with multiple quarter spies, and it was fairly successful. That’s something Michigan can replicate but execute even better.

You may think of the Bulldogs as an elite pass rush, but this season they weren’t, ranking 52nd in sack rate. Michigan meanwhile, is led by a couple of stalwarts on the edge in Jaylen Harrell and Derrick Moore. The Wolverines ranked 15th in sack rate and their 44.2% pressure rate only trailed Penn State.

Remember, in college football sacks do negatively impact a quarterback’s rushing yards. And Milroe has been one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the country. The Tide’s offensive line has allowed the 4th highest sack rate and ranks 114th in pressure rate allowed this season.

NCAAF Player Prop: Dillon Johnson Rush Yards

Anyone else is going to look at this chart and say over, he’s cleared this number in 8 of his last 9 games. But remember, there’s always a reason why the books are pricing a number the way it is. Allow me to give you the full story on the Sugar Bowl.

The Huskies seemed to have been a banged up group offensively closing out the season. Quarterback Michael Penix had seen his play dropoff from what we’d seen earlier on and wide receiver Jalen McMillan missed some time. As a result, Dillon Johnson carried this offense when it needed him most, all the way to a CFP berth.

You can see it in his late season touches, where he averaged 22.8 carries in the last 5 games.

But unfortunately for Johnson, you can’t beat this Texas team by pounding the ball on the ground. They’re one of the best run defenses in the country, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry (5th).

They’ve got an elite trio of defenders in their front seven in Jaylan Ford, T’Vondre Sweat, and Byron Murphy. Their 23.2% stuff rate ranks 22nd in the nation.

With a secondary that is far more susceptible to giving up production, look for the Huskies to lean on their passing attack instead.

NCAAF Player Prop: Rome Odunze Receiving Yards

Now that you’ve heard about how I believe the Washington offense will attack the Texas defense, talking about this receiving prop should be pretty straight forward.

Texas has had some serious issues defending receivers that run their routes on the outside. If you look at Rashad Owens in the BIG12 Championship game that went for 85 yards and 2 TDs, Iowa State’s Jayden Higgins went for 104 receiving yards, and TCU’s Savion Williams went for 164 yards and TD. These are just in 3 of the Longhorns last 4 weeks.

What they’ve struggled the most with is allowing explosive passing plays. They rank 98th in opponent completion percentage on passes of 20+ air yards.

This is the bread and butter of the Washington offense. Penix leads the country in passes fo 20+ air yards. Even despite attempting over 100 of these passes in 2023 he has a very solid 44% completion percentage.

Odunze has been Penix’s number 1 receiver all season. On these downfield passes that’s still the case as well. He leads the country with 37 targets of 20+ yards and has caught 48.6% of them.

He’s had a reception of 20+ yards in all but one game this season and has had a 30+ yard reception in 8/13 games.

Odunze has cleared this number in 4 straight games. But even more interestingly, he’s gone for 100+ yards in every game Jalen McMillan has played in this year. McMillan will be playing on Monday and his presence seems to take some attention away from Odunze.

NCAAF Player Prop: Adonai Mitchell Receiving Yards

The Texas offense does have a fair bit of unknown when it comes to player prop betting in this game. They lost starting running back Jonathon Brooks to injury in week 11 and it’s since been a running back by committee approach. The Longhorns also saw Xaiver Worthy injure his ankle the last time we saw them play in the Conference Championship. He was seen in crutches following the game but it’s been nearly a month since they’ve had game action.

If Worthy isn’t 100% it’s going to be on Mitchell to step up. He has an excellent chance to do against this Washington defense.

The Huskies have really lacked a pass rush this season, their 10% sack rate is 123rd in the country. This gives opposing QBs quite a bit of time to operate and find opportunities downfield.

Much like the Texas defense, Washington’s secondary has given up a lot of big plays. They rank 125th in completions of 20+ air yards with 27. Their 39.7% completion percentage on these passes is 104th in college football.

Mitchell is a dynamic downfield threat with great speed to beat defenders 1-on-1. 

Since week 10 Mitchell ranks 24th in targets of 20+ air yards with 9. He’s also had a reception of 20+ yards in 5 of the last 6 weeks. Look for Mitchell to be a reliable piece of this offense.

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Thank you, Tyler MacKillop for this article. He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop

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