The final game of the college football season is here! Between the two remaining undefeated teams in the sport. 

We don’t want to waste any time here. Let’s get into this fascinating matchup between Washington and Michigan for the National Championship. Including some of the most interesting player props in this one.

NCAAF Player Prop: Blake Corum Rush Yards

This is one of the most interesting player props on the board. Corum being listed at a healthy 105.5 rushing yards is fascinating as he hasn’t cleared this number in 13 of his 14 games this season.

So let me tell you why the hit rate doesn’t tell the whole story and that the way this prop is priced is perhaps telling you how you should be betting it.

Let’s start with the Michigan offense, which runs the ball on over 59% of plays. The Wolverines have treated much of the season as a two headed monster in their backfield between Corum and Donovan Edwards. But as of late that hasn’t been the case.

Taking a look at Edwards recent rushing attempts you can see that in the BIG10 Championship game and Rose Bowl he saw just 4 carries each. Those were in fact tied for the lowest amount of touches he’s had in a game this season. A steep dropoff to the 10+ carries per game he was seeing in weeks prior.

Well, this is good news if you like the over for Corum. He’s seen a serious uptick in touches as of late with an average of 22.2 compared to 16.9 carries per game over the course of the season. These were also some of the biggest games they’ve had this season, so Jim Harbaugh’s team could be leaning on their RB1 more when it matters most. And what game matters more than the National Championship?

Now let’s talk about the Washington defense. Which despite their win in the Sugar Bowl over Texas, gave up 180 yards on the ground for an average of 6.4 yards per carry.

On the season, their run defense has been a major problem. The Huskies rank 125th in opponent EPA/rush, giving up 5.0 yards per carry. This undoubtedly seems like a spot the Wolverines will take advantage of.

NCAAF Player Prop: Michael Penix Pass Yards

I promise you, this will be the last time we talk about a player prop where the trend doesn’t say to bet the other side. But I would be remiss not to point out the value that there is for taking the under on Michael Penix pass yards despite the fact he’s gone over in 71% of games.

I mentioned how effectively I think the Wolverines can run the football in this matchup. But they’re also the 3rd slowest offense in the country, only Air Force and Army operate their offenses at a slower pace.

What does this have to do with Penix’ pass yards? Well the best way to stop an explosive offense is to keep them off the field. And this Michigan team should be able to put together some long, clock killing drives. That’s going to give Washington very few possessions compared to a normal game.

Penix is typically getting 36.1 pass attempts per game. I don’t see that being the case in this game. 

But more importantly, no quarterback has tallied more than 270 passing yards against Michigan this season. They boast the #1 pass defense in EPA/play this year. With a pass rush that pressures quarterbacks at a 43% rate, those downfield opportunities Penix has relied on may not be available as often.

This is still a game that the talented Washington offense can find success. But I’m not sure they’ll have enough opportunities to get over a number as high as this one.

NCAAF Player Prop: Rome Odunze Anytime TD

The superstar Washington receiver has been quiet in the touchdown department the last two weeks but we could see some personnel changes as a result of injury on Monday. 

Running back Dillon Johnson injured his foot in the semi-final. Although Kalen DeBoer said Johnson will play, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be anywhere near 100%. And if you remember from last year’s National Championship game, TCU running back Kendre Miller got hurt in their semi-final and despite the team saying he’d be available he did not play against Georgia.

As you can see, Johnson is a big time touchdown contributor for the Huskies. He’s got 11 touchdowns in his last 7 games. So if Johnson isn’t available, or hobbled, somebody else has to pick up the slack.

I would expect Odunze to be that guy for Washington. Despite not scoring in back-to-back games he had 6 touchdowns in the 3 games prior.

He dominates the target share for the Huskies but especially when they get into the scoring areas. Inside the opponent’s 10-yard line his target share jumps to 34%.

NCAAF Player Prop: Blake Corum o1.5 Anytime TD

I would be remiss if I didn’t bring your attention to the best bet in college football this season. Blake Corum to score 2+ touchdowns. I’ve been on it for the last three games but it’s cashed in 6 straight!

We already talked about how effective the Michigan run game should be. So let’s add some context as to what to expect when they get into the red zone. 

Michigan is running the ball on 82.2% of plays in goal-to-go situations. To go even further, 53% of those plays the ball is in the hands of Blake Corum. So if the Wolverines are scoring more often than not it’s him.

For those of you that don’t bet on college football often, you’ll likely be surprised to hear that the best price available for this prop is +143.

It pains me to say it, but that’s a wrap on the college football season. And for what it’s worth, my final score prediction is Michigan 30 – Washington 23!

Thank you, Tyler MaKillop, for this article. You can find in on X @TylerMacKillop

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