Insight

NCAAF Player Prop Insights: Week 5

September 28, 2024

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The fifth week of the college football season is a key one from a betting perspective for a few reasons. We have less matchups against FCS opponents, more conference games and more data on our hands to leverage for information.

More conference games means more matchups between teams and players that have historical head-to-head data to utlitize as well. So when looking at this week’s college football player prop trends, Props.Cash has some awesome features to take advantage of.

Let’s dive into the best college football player props this week.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: DJ Giddens Rush Yards

NCAAF Player Props Today DJ Giddens Rush Yards

Kansas State running back DJ Giddens is off to a fantastic start to the season. He’s 10th in the country in carries and is averaging 6.0 yards per tote.

Now he runs into an Oklahoma State defense that doesn’t have any answers for the run. Last week Utah running back Micah Bernard toasted their defense for 186 yards and averaged 5.46 yards after contact!

The Pokes rank 111th in broken tackle rate and their opponents are averaging 5.4 yards per carry.

Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has struggled in the passing game. So they’ve leaned more and more on his legs and DJ Giddens.

NCAAF Player Props Today DJ Giddens Rush Yards

The Wildcats lead back is averaging 17 touches per game on the season. Last week against BYU, Kansas State was trailing 17-6 at halftime, and still managed to get Giddens 19 rush attempts. In a very plus matchup for their offense at home here, I’d expect 20+ touches.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: KeAndre Lambert-Smith Receiving Yards

NCAAF Player Props Today KeAndre Lambert-Smith Receiving Yards

If you’ve been paying any attention to the Auburn Tigers this week you’d know that Hugh Freeze isn’t happy with his quarterbacks. They turned the ball over 5 times in a loss to Arkansas last week.

What makes it so frustrating for Freeze is that this offense could be one of the best in the country if not for those turnovers. They are averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, that’s the 13th best passing offense in the sport.

Oklahoma comes to town on Saturday afternoon and I’m expecting to see the veteran Payton Thorne back under center. He’s a great fit to take on Oklahoma defensive coordinator Tim Banks who is extremely blitz heavy.

Thorne is PFF’s 5th best graded passer against the blitz this season, throwing 4 TD’s, having 0 interceptions or turnover worthy plays and averaging a ridiculous 13.1 yards per pass attempt!

And guess who his favorite target is when blitzed? KeAndre Lambert-Smith by a long shot. He leads the team with 12 targets when blitzed and has turned his 8 receptions into an insane 247 yards. He’s averaging 30.9 yards per reception when his quarterback is blitzed!

NCAAF Player Props Today KeAndre Lambert-Smith Receiving Yards

Lambert-Smith is generating plenty of explosive plays. In fact, in 3 of his 4 games this season he would have cleared this number in just 1 play.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Shedeur Sanders Pass Yards

NCAAF Player Props Today Shedeur Sanders Pass Yards

This will be my first time diving into the Colorado waters this season. They are on the road at UCF as two touchdown underdogs, likely leaving this Buffs offense to play catch up.

UCF has been dominant against the run this season, they come into this game as the 3rd best defense in opponent EPA/rush. Colorado is already throwing the ball on 64% of plays and has the worst rushing attack in all of the power-4 conferences. Expect a passing rate closer to 70% in this game.

That’s also due to the fact UCF is the complete opposite team defending the pass. Ranking 95th in opponent EPA/pass. The Knights are coming off a bye, but in their last game TCU quarterback Josh Hoover threw for over 400 yards.

NCAAF Player Props Today Shedeur Sanders Pass Yards

We all know how much this Colorado offense leans on Sanders. He’s averaging over 40 pass attempts per game and it should be no different in this game.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: John Mateer Pass Yards

NCAAF Player Props Today John Mateer Pass Yards

Washington State goes on the road Saturday night to visit Boise State in a matchup that features two surprising Heisman Trophy candidates in Ashton Jeanty and John Mateer.

Boise State is actually a touchdown favorite in this game  but I don’t see any reason why the Cougs offense doesn’t find success.

The Broncos are pretty brutal defensively, especially against the pass. Opponents are averaging 7.7 yards per attempt (102nd) and completing 64.8% of their passes. Not to mention, they’ve given up 6 completions of 20+ air yards in just 3 games.

Mateer’s start to the season has been a revelation for Wazzu. He’s a dynamic playmaker with both his legs and arm. He’s constantly chasing those big plays too, his 10 completions of 20+ air yards ranks 10th in FBS.

NCAAF Player Props Today John Mateer Pass Yards

As the early part of their season has gone on, Mateer’s role in the offense has grown. In their two competitive games he’s thrown the ball 30+ times. These are two teams that play at a top-50 pace offensively, look for Mateer to have plenty of opportunity to clear this number.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jordan James Rush Yards

 NCAAF Player Props Today Jordan James Rush Yards

Despite a rough week 4 of player props we’ve still cashed every under. This is going to be my spot for it in the final game of Saturday night when Oregon visits UCLA.

The Bruins defense continues to battle for new head coach DeShaun Foster. Last week they gave LSU all they could handle on the road before running out of gas late.

One thing I know I can expect from this UCLA defense is their ability to stop the run. Even in blowout losses. On the season they’re allowing just 3.8 yards per carry and are top-20 in broken tackle rate.

 NCAAF Player Props Today Jordan James Rush Yards

James volume so far this season is representative of a lead back, but not a workhorse. Oregon has a major edge in the passing game where UCLA has not had any answers. So early on I wouldn’t expect his volume to be high.

But Oregon is a sizeable favorite on the road here, 25.5 points to be exact. Even if James matches his season high 17 carries in this game he would need to average at least 5.4 yards per carry to clear this number. I don’t see that happening against Jay Toia and this UCLA defensive front.

Thanks goes out to Tyler MacKillop for this article! He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop!

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