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Three weeks left of regular season college football. It’s been a great year so far, after last week our record improved to 29-20 (59%).

We don’t have too many big games on the slate. So let’s open up the board and find the best college football player prop trends for week 12.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jake Briningstool Receiving Yards

Clemson looks to keep its ACC Championship hopes alive as they visit a Pitt team that has dropped back-to-back games. The Tigers are a near two touchdown favorite here and I think their success starts through the air.

The Pitt defense has been stout against the run this season. Their 3.8 yards per rush allowed is 9th nationally and with a stuff rate over 25% there is going to be little for Clemson to find through Phil Mafah and the run game.

Pittsburgh’s pass defense isn’t nearly as elite, ranking 65th in opponent EPA/pass. They lean on a heavy zone scheme almost exclusively in cover-3 or cover-4.

The vast majority of Briningstool’s production has come against zone coverage. Against cover-3 and cover-4 he’s posted a 25.3% target rate and leads the team with 19 receptions. 

The Clemson tight end has also seen his route participation skyrocket in recent weeks. Having run 40+ routes in back-to-back weeks. If he’s on the field this much vs Pitt he should clear this receiving number.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Trebor Pena Receiving Yards

Last week we didn’t have an under to share. It’s been the most profitable bet in these articles, going 10-3 on the year. But I’ve found one here as Cal’s defense should give Syracuse some serious problems.

I’m not sure how many realize just how good Justin Wilcox’s defense has been against the pass this season. Ranking top-30 in EPA/pass allowed and giving up just a 55.9% completion percentage.

The Cal defense plays a lot of man coverage which doesn’t lead to much production for Syracause receiver Trebor Pena. With just a 1.36 YDs/RR and averaging just 8.1 yards per reception.

What’s really stuck out to me in the Syracuse offense as well is the emergence of Jackson Meeks. Who’s dominated the target share since week 5, especially against man coverage.

Pena is the WR3 in production against man coverage since week 5, posting just a 20% target share. In a matchup against a tough pass defense I think this number is too high.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jordyn Tyson Receiving Yards

If you’ve yet to get on the Jordyn Tyson bandwagon now is your chance. The Sun Devils have a massive matchup with Kansas State Saturday night as both teams look to keep their BIG12 title hopes alive.

Kansas State is one of the leading teams in the country in man coverage rate this season and Tyson has been a menace in man-to-man. His 3.74 YDs/RR is top-30 in the entire nation.

Tyson’s 27 receptions against man coverage is more than double that of the next best Arizona State receiver. These receptions often result in big plays, averaging 16.3 yards per catch.

His volume has been excellent in recent weeks too, averaging over 6 receptions per game in his last 5. I’d expect volume to be high again here as ASU running back Cam Skattebo is expected to return from injury but he runs into a very difficult rushing matchup.

Kansas State has been terrific in their front seven this season, posting a 25.8% stuff rate (8th) and allowing just 4.2 yards per carry. 

So if Arizona State is going to find success they’ll have to increase their pass volume and that will be a huge benefit to Tyson as he looks to clear this number for the 6th straight week.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Terrance Ferguson Receiving Yards

Our first chance to place a bet on the #1 team in the nation comes this weekend as Oregon visits Wisconsin. A win on Saturday and the Ducks clinch their spot in the Big Ten Championship game.

The Ducks lost leading receiver Tez Johnson a few weeks ago to injury and that’s given tight end Terrance Ferguson more opportunity. Despite going under his receiving line he posted 12 targets and 6 receptions last week against Maryland.

Now he gets a more advantageous matchup against Wisconsin. The Badgers pass defense has been stout this season but their cover-0 and cover-1 heavy scheme plays well into Ferguson’s skill set.

The Ducks tight end has posted a 28.6% target rate against this coverage and averages 15.8 yards per reception.

The Wisconsin defense has had its struggles vs the run this season but with Oregon running back Jordan James being questionable to play they may have to lean on Dillon Gabriel and the passing game more often.

Look for Ferguson to generate some big plays after the catch and clear his receiving line.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Devin Neal Rush Yards

If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right? Last week my favorite prop was Utah running back Micah Bernard to go over his rushing yards vs BYU and he took care of business. I still feel like this line for another running back going against the Cougars is too low.

Kansas running back Devin Neal has quietly been one of the best backs in the country this season. Being extremely efficient no matter the opponent. He’s broken at least one run of 15+ yards in all but two games this season and I expect nothing less here.

BYU has been getting gashed in the run game all year, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. And they’re not tackling well at the second level, ranking 110th in broken tackle rate. Neal is posting his best yards after contact rate of his career, he will make this defense pay.

He’s already proven to do it in his career against BYU, just last season he posted 91 rushing yards on 17 carries. Look for him to post 100+ rush yards for the 7th time this season.

Thanks goes out to Tyler MacKillop for this article! He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop!

Want to find trends like these on your own? New users can get 25% off their first month of a props.cash monthly plan with the code BLOG25 at checkout (when signing up on the website only).

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