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NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Kevin Jennings Pass Yards

That’s a lot of green for SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings and I expect that to continue as they visit Happy Valley to take on Penn State.

There are very few teams that have been able to run the ball effectively against the Penn State defense. USC was the only team to have a player run for over 100 yards against the Nittany Lions. They just create so many negative plays behind the line of scrimmage with a 26% stuff rate (5th).

That’s why Jennings is going to play such an important role in this game. The Mustangs and Rhett Lashlee have to lean on him to walk out of Beaver Stadium with a win. The good news is they’re comfortable doing so, he’s attempted 30+ passes in now 4 straight games.

I love the matchup for Jennings to move the ball effectively. This Penn State defense looks to defend the pass by playing a high rate of man coverage and blitzing on more than 40% of plays.

Jennings has been one of the most explosive passers in the country against cover-1, which is Penn State’s predominant man scheme. His 11.0 yards per attempt ranks 2nd nationally, only trailing Jaxson Dart.

His numbers against the blitz are even more impressive. Completing 70.4% of his passes (7th), averaging 10.0 yards per attempt (5th), throwing 11 touchdowns to just 1 interception.

Rhett Lashlee is a fantastic offensive play designer. When opponents play man-to-man or blitz and take numbers out of their secondary he makes them pay after the catch. The Mustangs finished the season 11th in the country in yards after the catch.

Jennings is in an excellent spot to be able to clear his passing line. Despite the chance of 15-25 MPH winds on Saturday afternoon this offense’s ability to create yards after the catch will keep him in line to go over this number.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Quintrevion Wisner Rush Yards

Now it’s time to head to Austin, Texas. The Longhorns play host to Clemson in what is the biggest point spread of round 1.

The Texas defense has been dominant all season long, in my opinion they’re the best unit in all of college football. What has been a problem is Quinn Ewers and their offense. Since his return from injury his 16 turnover worthy plays is the 3rd most in the nation.

The good news for Texas in this matchup is they don’t need Ewers to do too much. He doesn’t need to take risk or put the ball in harms way.

Clemson ranks 100th in opponent EPA/rush. Allowing an awful 5.4 yards per carry. The Longhorns offense can lean on their run game while the defense dominates on the other side of the ball.

Over the last few week Wisner has solidified his role as the lead back. His massive performance against Texas A&M really solidified it. In his last 4 games he’s averaging over 23 carries.

I’d expect to see a bounce back performance after being held in check against a far superior Georgia defense.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Bryant Wesco Jr Receiving Yards

I’ve got one more play for Clemson vs Georgia before we get to the last play of the weekend. I mentioned how dominant the Texas defense has been but if there’s one guy on this Clemson offense that could solve it it’s the freshman Bryant Wesco Jr.

Ryan Williams, Jeremiah Smith and Cam Coleman have captured the nation as superstar freshman receivers but Wesco deserves some respect as well.

The Longhorns defense plays a lot of zone coverage, but more specifically a top-25 rate of COVER-3. As we discussed prior to the conference championship game against SMU, Wesco dominates this coverage.

He jumps to a 25% target rate and is averaging an INSANE 36.2 yards per reception! His targets against cover-3 are 23 yards downfield, these are constant opportunities to make explosive plays like we saw a few weeks ago.

As good as Texas defense has been against the pass this year they are a bit susceptible to the deep ball. Ranking 62nd in completion percentage on passes of 20+ air yards. 29.7% of Wesco’s targets are of 20+ air yards and he’s coming down with nearly 50% them.

Wesco can hit this number in just one play and that’s a player I’m willing to invest in.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jeremiah Smith ATTD

We’re onto our final, and probably most anticipated, game of the weekend. Tennessee visits Ohio State as they look to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to Michigan for yet another year.

I’m looking for this Ohio State offense to learn from their mistakes. Much like Michigan, you cannot run the ball on this Tennessee front four. The Buckeyes did that far too much against the Wolverines.

The Volunteers, led by future first round pick James Pearce, allow a nation’s best 3.5 yards per carry. Their 26.2% stuff rate is the 3rd best nationally. That means when you get in the red zone and condense the field their defense is going to make plays against the run.

Jeremiah Smith is probably the best receiver in the College Football Playoff despite turning 19 less than a month ago. He’s a freak athlete, standing at 6-foot-3 his size has proven to be an excellent red zone weapon.

His 11 red zone targets leads the Buckeyes, with Emeka Egbuka being next with 7. He’s posted a 34.3% target rate when they get in the red zone.

Ohio State is going to have to throw the ball more often just in general, not in the red zone, that puts Smith in the best position to find the end zone despite only scoring twice in his last 5 games.

Thanks goes out to Tyler MacKillop for this article! He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop!

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