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National Championship Monday is here! The final game of the college football season. Despite the new 12-team College Football Playoff format being added, the end of the season was bound to arrive.

Ohio State, Notre Dame for it all. I don’t think anyone can disagree that these two teams earned their spots. Having started their CFP journey before Christmas, they’ve answered every question we’ve had about them.

Even with just 1 game to cover. I’m still going to cover 5 college football playoff props. 10-5 so far in the CFP, let’s go out swinging shall we?

NCAAF Player Prop Trends: Carnell Tate Receiving Yards

The best part about having Ohio State in the National Championship game is how familiar we’ve gotten with this offense. I’d estimate throughout the season there have been 4-5 bets in these articles on Ohio State offensive players.

For Carnell Tate, it’s very simple. Against zone coverage, he cooks. You can tell just by looking at his chart. Texas, Michigan and Indiana are all heavy zone coverage defenses and he cleared this receiving line in all of them.

The bad news is, Notre Dame is one of the most man coverage heavy defenses in the country. They run the 2nd most cover-1 coverage and are in man on more than 60% of plays. Tate has posted 1.49 yards per route run against man, compared to 2.31 against zone.

The 4 games Tate has gone under in his last 10 were against Oregon, Penn State, Tennessee and Oregon. All 4 of those teams play a high clip of man coverage, Tate failed to exceed 2 receptions in any of those contests.

The Irish have made it this far because they have the most dominant pass defense in college football. Their 51% opponent completion percentage is the best in the sport. This makes for a nightmare matchup for Carnell Tate.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Emeka Egbuka Receiving Yards

Now we take a look at Emeka Egbuka’s last 10 chart and you see nearly the complete opposite. That’s because these two receivers are in lockstep.

Egbuka is not nearly as efficient against zone coverage as he is against man. He’s posted 2.19 YDS/RR vs zone coverage and 2.64 against man. So when Tate struggles he’s been the one to consistently pick up the slack.

Jeremiah Smith took major attention from Texas last week in the Cotton Bowl. They were able to make the star freshman a non-factor. I bring this up because Smith has been one of the country’s best receivers against man coverage this season, so he’s a potential target for player props as well.

But I do think, much like Texas, the Irish will bracket Smith in coverage in an effort to take him away. Forcing the Buckeyes to beat them with other options.

That’s what makes Egbuka an even stronger target here with Tate’s struggles vs man coverage. Seeing his receiving line similar to last week does not reflect his positive matchup. 

Egbuka is demanding a 30.4% target rate against cover-1! He has an opportunity to be the most targeted receiver in this game. I think this line is too low for the future first round pick.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jordan Faison Receiving Yards

After emerging as Riley Leonard’s go-to-guy in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, Jordan Faison was a non-factor in the semi-final. I think that changes against Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have completely taken away the ground attack of their opponents throughout the postseason. Allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. They’re going to force Notre Dame into third down situations where they have to throw the football.

This entire Ohio State team has had a resurgence since the CFP kicked off and I dove into what changed on the defensive side. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made a sizeable shift in his defensive scheme. Blitzing far less and playing zone coverage at about a 20% higher rate.

But why does this matter for Jordan Faison? Well the Buckeyes have played about as much cover-3 in their three playoff games as they have all season long. This scheme tends to do a good job taking away the middle of the field but does leave you a bit exposed to pass plays outside the hash marks, near the sideline. As we saw with Matthew Golden (Texas) and Traeshon Holden (Oregon) the last two games.

Faison has been running 84.7% of his routes on the outside this season. He’s also posted a 27% target rate against cover-3, which has jumped to 29.4% since week-10. His late season jump in usage has been a result of Beaux Collins lack of production now taking him off the field.

We saw Faison struggle to earn target share against Penn State in the semi-final. But the Nittany Lions played a high rate of man coverage, where on Monday he will see a much different matchup, lending himself to the over.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jaden Greathouse Receiving Yards

Jaden Greathouse emerged from the ashes in the most important game of the season for the Irish last week. But otherwise has been a non-factor in the ladder part of the season. I wouldn’t expect much from him on Monday night.

The Buckeyes cover-3 scheme does a great job taking care of the middle of the field. With Greathouse running his routes out of the slot that spells trouble.

The Notre Dame receiver also much prefers matching up against man coverage, as we saw against Penn State. The dropoff is substantial, as he goes from 3.04 YDs/RR vs man to just 1.40 against zone.

Greathouse has thrived off of explosive plays and in this matchup he isn’t likely to find it. He’s averaging just 9.7 yards per reception against zone coverage this season, with an average depth of target of just 6.7 yards.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Quinshon Judkins ATTD

Last week I went in-depth on the mismatch between Penn State and Notre Dame on short yardage. Ultimately I pegged Kaytron Allen as an ATTD target and unfortunately it was Nick Singleton that cashed those opportunities in for two scores.

If you missed the discussion from last week, I’ll reiterate. The Irish rank 126th in stuff rate this season at just 14.7%. If you don’t know what stuff rate is, it’s the percentage of runs a defense is able to stop for either a loss or no gain. Which when you rank this poorly, doesn’t bode well for making stops around the goaline.

Notre Dame lost defensive tackle Rylie Mills at the start of the Playoff and they’ve only gotten worse in this metric since his absence.

Much like Penn State, Ohio State has two backs at their disposal in Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. But when they get inside the 5 yard line we’ve seen Judkins get double the amount of opportunities. He’s had 10 carries to Henderson’s 5.

Judkins has also gotten three opportunities inside the 5-yard line in the College Football Playoff and has converted all three into touchdowns. Meanwhile, Henderson has yet to receive a carry.

You’ll be able to find Judkins at a reasonable price to score in back-to-back games. And much like Nick Singleton, he might be able to do it twice.

Thanks goes out to Tyler MacKillop for this article! He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop!

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