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We got the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, signalling the stretch run of the season. The stakes have grown even higher for games like Alabama vs LSU, Georgia vs Ole Miss and even Colorado vs Texas Tech!

Last week was so close to another sweep, with the injury to Dylan Raiola we finished 4-1. That’s 9-1 the last two weeks and 26-18 (59%) on the season. We’ll get to some of the biggest games and so much more in the best college football player prop trends for week 11.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Jackson Meeks Receiving Yards

This ACC tilt might not have CFP implications but there’s still plenty to be excited about for this matchup. Syracuse is coming off a come from behind win over Virginia Tech while BC has lost 3 straight in conference play.

This Boston College defense has a talented front seven that under defensive coordinator Tim Lewis, likes to send the blitz. Having done so on over 35% of plays.

Jackson Meeks has been Syracuse QB Kyle McCord’s go-to-target when he’s been blitzed this season. Posing a ridiculous 42.7% target rate against the blitz and averaging 15.1 yards per reception.

Trebor Pena and Oronde Gadsden get a lot of the praise in this offense but Meeks is clearly flying under the radar. BC’s coverage scheme is predominantly cover-1 and cover-3 centric and Meeks has posted an impressive 39.5% target rate against this coverage. Not to mention he’s averaging an explosive 17,9 yards per reception.

He’s seen a healthy amount of opportunity in recent weeks. If he continues to record 5+ receptions in this matchup his proven production against this Boston College scheme should put him in an excellent spot to clear this number.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Carson Beck Interceptions

We talked about the matchup between Georgia and Ole Miss having massive implications and that puts Carson Beck in a big spot on the road at the Grove.

Beck has gone from looking like a future top-10 NFL Draft pick to being a turnover machine. Having thrown an interception in 4 of his last 5 games and totalling 12 interceptions on the year. I don’t expect his recent performance to be much different here.

The Ole Miss defense has been one of the best in the country so far this season. Their 22.7% sack rate is the 2nd best in the country. Beck has been horrible when under pressure this season, his 10.3% turnover worthy play rate is the 11th worst of 151 qualified quarterbacks.

The Rebels also play in cover-1 at a top-4 rate in the entire nation. Beck has struggled immensely against his coverage, posting just a 48.8% completion percentage and a 7.3% interception rate that ranks 151st amongst FBS quarterbacks.

But not only do I think Beck will struggle in this matchup, the Bulldogs will have no choice but to lean on him. Georgia cannot run the football and Ole Miss has the 3rd best opponent EPA/rush in college football. If you’re going to move the ball on offense it has to be through the air.

Beck has been throwing the ball a ton this season, and even more since SEC play has opened. If he attempts 40+ passes for the 5th time in 6 weeks he is bound to throw an interception with his turnover worthy play.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Eric McAlister Receiving Yards

We’ve got a lot of green on the chart for TCU receiver Eric McAlister and I don’t expect that to change here. Last week we attacked the Oklahoma State defense with Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson and came away with a winner and I see another great chance to do that again.

McAlister is the WR4 in the TCU offense but over the course of the last two weeks he’s seen the highest route participation of his season. There is no reason for him to see the field any less in this matchup.

Oklahoma State plays one of the highest rates of man coverage in all of college football. McAlister is an elite separator against man coverage, his 3.49 YDs/RR leads the team and he’s averaging a ridiculous 23.8 yards per reception.

TCU will see a majority of cover-1 from the Pokes defense and McAlister sees a 37.9% target rate against this coverage. 

As long as he continues to run anywhere near the amount of routes he’s been running the last two weeks this number should be no problem. But even so, he’s been so explosive against Oklahoma State’s defensive scheme that he only needs a few opportunities to clear his prop price.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Will Rogers Pass Yards

We’re seeing a pretty modest number here for WIll Rogers as Washington goes on the road to Penn State. In what will be one of the more hostile environments of the season as Beaver Stadium is decked in a white out.

But I believe the Washington offense can move the ball through the air effectively on the road. The Nittany Lions are forcing opponents to lean on their pass attack as they’re generating a lot of negative plays against the run with a 26.8% stuff rate.

Rogers has been an elite quarterback this season against man coverage. Penn State runs one of highest rates of cover-1 man in the entire nation. Rogers is completing 65.5% of his passes and averaging an explosive 9.9 yards per attempt.

Penn State opponents are averaging 30 pass attempts per game this season and when Rogers has attempted 30+ passes he’s over 202.5 pass yards in 4 of 5 games this season.

NCAAF Player Prop Trend: Micah Bernard Rush Yards

This one is my favorite prop of the Saturday slate and it’ll be decided in one of my favorite rivalry games, the Holy War. These two teams haven’t played since 2021, this has been a long time coming.

Home field advantage is massive for both these teams as they’ve got some of the best environments in the sport. This year the game will be played at Utah in Rice-Eccles Stadium. I think the Utes can keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset of the #9 team in the CFP rankings.

BYU’s struggles against the run have yet to catch up with them this season in terms of adding to their loss column. The Cougars rank 75th in opponent EPA/rush and are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. You can put the ball on the ground and stay ahead of the chains as they’re only generating a 17.4% stuff rate.

Utah is without Cam Rising for the remainder of the season at quarterback and Isaac Wilson has struggled in his absence. Leaving the Utes now with a quarterback competition between Wilson and Brenden Rose.

The Utes will go as Micah Bernard goes and with an advantageous matchup for their run game I’d expect him to see 20+ rushes as he’s done in a pair of other games this season.

Thanks goes out to Tyler MacKillop for this article! He can be found on X @TylerMacKillop!

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