Insight
NBA Player Prop Trends: Wednesday Insights
January 03, 2024
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By Prop The Mic
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After two weeks of holiday schedules we are finally back with a big NBA slate tonight. We used our favorite filters on props.cash to unlock some great value for tonight’s games. If you like rebound props, this article is for you. Let’s dive in:
NBA Player Prop Trend: Jalen Johnson 11.5 Reb + Ast
Since returning from a month long injury Jalen Johnson has been on fire. In his last three games he’s averaging 16.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. He faces a tired OKL that is traveling to Atlanta after a grueling game against BOS last night. Johnson is in great position to clear any of his props tonight, but we’re going with the Reb+Ast prop. He’s cleared 11.5 assists in 5 of 7 games this season when playing 34+ minutes and has played 35+ minutes in each of his last two games recording 19 and 17 Reb+Ast. He should see similar playing time tonight. He also faced OKL on Nov 6 and recorded 17 Reb+Ast in 34 minutes in that game. Let’s go with the third year rising star tonight.
NBA Player Prop Trend: Rudy Gobert 25.5 Pts + Reb
Rudy Gobert has played 36+ minutes 9 times this season, including 5 of the last 6 games. When playing 36+ minutes this season he has cleared 25.5 Pts+Reb in 8 of 9 games. Tonight he faces a NOP team who has been prone to big games to opposing centers. This includes recent big games to: Anthony Davis (30), Alperen Sengün (48), Domantas Sabonis (39). Tonight will be the fourth time Gobert faces NOP. He cleared this Pts+Reb line in the first two meetings with 38 and 28 and missed in his third meeting with only 25 minutes played. Tonight’s spread is a 6.5pt line so we’re expecting it to stay competitive, especially with both teams riding 7-3 records in their last 10 games. Look for Gobert to be active in both scoring and rebounding tonight!
NBA Player Prop Trend: Jakob Poeltl 9.5 rebounds
This is a great matchup for Jakob Poeltl tonight against a MEM team that has given up huge rebounding games to opposing centers this year. This includes the following opposing centers in the past month: Sabonis (21), Zubac (20), Gobert (20), Lively (16), Jokic (14), Valanciunas (13, 14), Capela (12), Duren (11), Sengün (10).
Poeltl has cleared 9.5 rebounds in 5 of 6 games when playing 30+ minutes. He averages 26+ minutes this season, but has played 34.7 and 37.1 minutes in the last two games. He will likely see 30+ minutes per game going forward with his backup Precious Achiuwa heading to NY. Look for this center to continue the domination of MEM!
NBA Player Prop Trend: Jalen Duren 11.5 Rebounds
Jalen Duren is a rebounding machine. He ranks fourth in the NBA in rebound rate at 0.40 reb/min, with only Drummond, Sharpe, and Capela more efficient. At this rate he needs 30 minutes of playing time to clear 11.5 rebounds. Tonight DET will be without Isaiah Stewart again, meaning more minutes for Duren against UTA. Duren has averaged 32.1 minutes in games without Stewart this season and has cleared 12+ rebounds in all three of those games. This includes a 13 rebound performance against HOU on Monday in which he only played 26 minutes due a combination of foul trouble and blowout. Duren had 9 rebounds in the first half alone in that game! If he can stay out of foul trouble tonight we could be looking at another 17+ rebound game.
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