Insight
NBA Player Prop Insights: Alternate Lines
January 31, 2024
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By Prop The Mic
Prop The Mic has had tremendous success with the Alt Builders this NBA Season. An alt builder is a type of parlay using player props that are reduced down to a lower value. For example, instead of LeBron at 24.5 points and -115 odds we could choose to play him at an alt line of 19.5 points and -500 odds. In order to get value near +100 odds, we parlay three or four of these alt lines together to make an alt builder.
We have been using the Alt Line features on props.cash to identify the best alt props each day and have hit 79%+ of our suggested NBA alt props this season. The key is to put the right alt props together in your builder to get that winning ticket! Let’s walk through props.cash to put together an alt builder for tonight’s NBA slate:
Let’s start on the main Trend page for props.cash and set the “Alt Lines” drop down to “15” for the points category. If we sort by the “2023” column we see that Giannis has the highest hit rate of any player tonight, clearing 15+ points in 98% of games! The only issue is he is projected for 29.29 points tonight, so most books don’t even offer Giannis at 15+ points and if they did it would be -20000 odds! Not a good leg of our alt builder.
Let’s find a player that has a projection closer to 15 points. If we sort by the “Proj” column now we can scroll down and find players like Franz Wagner or Jimmy Butler that are projected for closer to 17 to 20 points tonight:
Referencing the “2023” column we see that Butler has cleared 15+ points in 88% of his games this season and 90% of his last 20 (“L20”) games. That’s solid!
Let’s click on Butler to see more details on him. His line tonight is 21.5 points, which he has cleared in only 41% of games this season, but if we hit the down arrow at the bottom of the props.cash chart and bring his line down to 14.5 point you can see he’s cleared in 88% of games this season. This matches the 88% we saw on the main Trend page.
He is playing at home tonight vs SAC. When we turn on the Home filter we see he’s cleared 15+ points in 100% of games at home this season:
On the sportsbook Butler 15+ points is a -800 odds play. This is a little juicy but given these hit rates we’ll include this in our at builder as leg 1! Let’s repeat this process to find our second leg of the alt builder.
Back on the main Trend page, if we set the Alt Lines to 20 points this time we see there are two players with a 90%+ hit rate. Giannis appears again, but he is -5000 for 20+ points at the sportsbook. This is not going to help us for our alt builder. The other player is Donovan Mitchell, who has cleared 20+ points in 91% of games this season and 90% of his last 20 games.
Clicking on Mitchell we see that he has also cleared in 89% of home games this season including 28+ points in his last 4 home games. He also had 20 points against DET earlier this season. Let’s include Mitchell at -700 as our second leg of the alt builder.
For our third leg of the alt builder, we’ll take a look at rebound props. Back on the main Trend page we set the filters to show an Alt Line of 6 rebounds. Sorting by the “Proj” column again we’ll zoom in on some players that are projected for 7 to 10 rebounds tonight. Towns, Valanciunas, and Sengün all have cleared 6+ rebounds in 91%+ of their games this season.
On the sportsbook, Towns is -700, Valanciunas -850, and Sengün -1200! Let’s go with the best value of Towns. He has cleared in 90% of home games this season and also 3 for 3 against DAL, his opponent tonight. Towns 6 rebounds is our third leg!
For our fourth and final leg of the alt builder, we’ll take a look at assist props. Back on the main Trend page we set the filters to show an Alt Line of 2 assists. Sorting by the “Proj” column again we’ll zoom in on some players that are projected for over 3 assists tonight. Strus, Herro, McCollum, and Butler all have cleared 2+ assists in 93%+ of their games this season.
On the sportsbook, Strus is -460, Herro is -1150, McCollum is -1900, and Butler -3000. Really great value for Strus! He has also cleared 2+ assists in 96% of home games this season and 2 for 2 against DET, his opponent tonight. Strus for 2 assists is our final leg!
Put all four legs of the builder together and you get a -125 parlay. If you’re looking for +100 or higher just follow the process above on props.cash to find a fifth leg to your parlay. Alt Builders are a work of art to put together and a nice way to hedge against blowouts and injuries. Good luck tonight with your straight picks and alt builders!
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