Insight

NBA Player Prop Insights: Thursday Slate

November 16, 2023

FREE access to some of the best NBA Player Props today from props.cash. Your leader in statistical insights and trends for all your player prop bets.

We have a small slate in the NBA tonight so let’s take a deep dive into a few examples of how we at Prop The Mic navigate through the props.cash screens to find and validate our favorite player props:

NBA Player Prop Trend: Andrew Wiggins 4.5 Rebounds

Wiggins rebounding production has been on the rise since the start of November.  After only clearing in only one of his first five games this season he has cleared 5+ rebounds in six of his last seven games.  We all saw the infamous Draymond chokehold on Wednesday so clearly Green will be out tonight. This had us thinking what impact does Draymond being out of the lineup have on Wiggin’s rebounding production.  Using the “Injuries” section of props.cash we can filter to see all games Wiggins has played without Draymond over the past year.  As suspected, Wiggins has cleared in four of five games without Green, averaging 5.6 rebounds in those games, compared with 4.9 rebounds when playing with Green.

Let’s check a few more things before we lock in this player prop.  Going down to the “Rebounds vs OKL” section in the web version of props.cash we can set the filter to “SF” to see how all other Small Forwards have done rebounding against OKL.  This looks pretty good as five of the last seven SF have cleared their rebounding line against OKL.  

The best comp on the list is probably Keita Bates-Diop on PHX whose line was 4.5 rebounds. Bates-Diop had 8 rebounds in that game in 27 minutes of playing time.  If we go the Minutes chart on props.cash we see that Wiggins is averaging 26.5 minutes over his last 5 games and played 27.6 minutes last game. 

With a good recent trend, solid performance with tonight’s lineup, and strong comparables against his opponent this seems like a great spot to lock in for tonight.

NBA Player Prop Trend: Nic Claxton over 1.5 blocks

Let’s start with the main Player Trend dashboard on props.cash for our next player prop.  We cycled through the “Props” drop down until we got to Blocks and noticed there was a player with 100% hit rate on the season: Nic Claxton.  

Clicking on Claxton we see that he has only played in three games this season so we should get an understanding of his expected playing time. 

In his first game back from an ankle injury Claxton played 27.9 minutes vs WAS on Nov 12.  So why did he only play 20.9 minutes in the game vs ORL on Nov 14? If we filter props.cash to show 1st half splits we see that Claxton only played 5.6 minutes in the 1st half vs ORL as he picked up 4 early fouls.  

Let’s look at the full last year to see if Claxton is typically in foul trouble. 

The answer is NO.  He’s actually only fouled out of two games in the last year and only had 5 fouls in 7 games.  That’s 9 of 83 games (11%) where he had 5+ fouls. Pretty amazing for one of the better defensive centers in the league.  With that said we can categorize the ORL game as an anomaly and assume he will stay out of foul trouble tonight and play between 26 to 30 minutes.  In the past year he has had 3+ blocks in 8/10 road games where he’s played between 26 and 30 mins.

Before we lock this one in, let’s see how Claxton has done vs MIA in the past year.  

We know Bam is tough to defend, but it appears Claxton has thrived in these games recording 2+ blocks in each game and 3+ blocks in both games in MIA.  Let’s use all this information from props.cash to lock in this player prop.

Want to find trends like these on your own? New users can get 25% off their first month of a props.cash monthly plan with the code BLOG25 at checkout (when signing up on the website only).

Check us out on X at Prop The Mic for a fun way to play this prop today!


More trends like this, as well as thousands of statistical insights can be found using our unique props software. Crunch the numbers faster and start making smarter, data driven, prop bets.

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