Monday’s NBA Slate in 5 Graphs

March 06, 2023

Statistical insights, trends, and outliers that should be on your radar today.

Taking a season-high 19.6 FGA/G over his last 10, Jamal Murray has went over his “Points” prop in seven of his last 10. The Raptors head into this matchup allowing the 7th fewest Points/G, but also with the 7th worst defense vs PGs this season – How many points will Murray have tonight?
Dejounte Murray has grabbed five or more “Rebounds” in eight of his last 10 – This includes back-to-back games with five Rebounds. MIA allow the 8th fewest Rebounds/G, but the 10th most DefensiveRebounds/G – Murray has reached this number in two of three vs MIA in ‘22-‘23
Over his last 10 games, De’Aaron Fox is committing 3.2 turnovers a game, clearing his 2.5 line 8 times. He is averaging 2.6 per game on the season, so he has seen an increase recently. Can he tighten it up, or will he hit 3 again?

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Joel Embiid is coming off a 10 assist game, and he has cleared his 3.5 line in 6 of his last 10. IND is ranked 28th against assists, so on paper it looks like a good spot. Embiid has hit this in 1 of his last 3 vs IND. Do they do enough to force him to pass tonight?
Over his L5, Jakob Poeltl’s Steals/G average increases from one to 2.2 Steals/G – He’s eclipsed his “Steals” prop in each of his last five games. The Nuggets allow the 7th most Steals/G – Poeltl has cleared this number in both matchup vs DEN this season

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