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Thanks to our friend Jared for the article (@jaredrblock).
MLB Player Prop Trend: Carlos Rodon Strikeouts
Rodon hasn’t been the most consistent strikeout generator the past few starts, but he does get a fascinating matchup on paper today against a Rays offense that over the last month, has the 3rd-lowest wRC+ (71), the highest K% (28.4%), and the lowest BB% (5.1%) against left-handed pitchers. There are five hitters in the projected lineup with a strikeout rate to this handedness over 25% in that timeframe.
MLB Player Prop Trend: Michael Harris II Hits + Runs + RBI
Harris II has cleared 2+ HRR in ten-straight while also clearing that market in L15/20. His 240 wRC+ vs. RHP the last two weeks leads the team while his 10% K% does negate Shane Smith’s 30% K% vs. LHH the last month. Harris II can win in this matchup once again and continue this epic second-half streak.
MLB Player Prop Trend: Seth Lugo Earned Runs
Lugo has seen tremendous falloff in his last two starts, allowing 13 ER off 15 hits in just 8 innings of work. Lugo has now allowed multiple runs in seven-straight starts and has been blown up by left-handed hitters specifically in his last two appearances. The current profile against lefties over the last 30 days is absolutely atrocious (5.76 xFIP / 13.9% K% / 11.1% BB% / 2.5 HR per 9 / 34% GB% / 0.41 wOBA allowed / 0.571 SLG allowed). Given that he’ll have to face a Texas lineup that is projected to have six LHH in it, Lugo’s struggles may continue today.
MLB Player Prop Today: Freddie Freeman Hitter Fantasy Score
Obviously Freeman’s fantasy score is going to be juiced to high heavens in a beautiful weather day at Coors. LA’s implied run total via Vegas is screaming at 7.7 (highest on slate), yet we’re still rocking with the lefty veteran in this matchup. Austin Gomber has not only allowed 3+ ER in five-straight starts, he has specifically allowed 11 ER off 14 hits across his last 11 IP (2 starts). This LA lineup might not be clicking on all cylinders vs. LHP the last 30 days, but Freeman does lead the team with a scorching hot 243 wRC+ while also carrying a legit .521 wOBA against this handedness the last 30 days. Gomber’s profile to left-handed hitters since late July is absolutely atrocious (6.07 xFIP / 12.5% K% / 6.3% BB% / 3.9 HR per 9 / 28% GB% / 0.412 wOBA allowed / 0.655 SLG allowed).
Kyle Hendricks has allowed 8 ER off 11 hits across his last 8.1 IP (2 appearances). Noelvi Marte has hit safely in his last nine games straight while also clearing 2+ HRR in five-straight contests. His team-leading 149 wRC+ vs. RHP the last two weeks lines up extremely well against Hendricks’ reverse splits profile over the last 30 days (5.36 xFIP / 12.5% K% / 2.5% BB% / 2.8 HR per 9 / 26.5% GB% / 0.347 wOBA allowed / 0.513 SLG allowed).
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